Tucson, AZ 
403 FXUS65 KFGZ 252233 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 333 PM MST Mon May 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the downturn over most of the area by this evening. However a few isolated showers are still possible tonight through Tuesday afternoon across far northeastern Arizona. A trough over the Great Basin will keep temperatures below average the rest of the week with increased winds midweek. && .DISCUSSION...Upper level low is currently generating numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area at this time. A few storms could be strong at times with strong downburst winds and some small hail. Precipitation amounts will range from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch over the high deserts to a quarter to a third of an inch over the Rim and White Mountains with isolated areas potentially picking up as much as half an inch. As the low starts to transit the state heading off to the northeast late this afternoon and tonight, along with loss of daytime heating, most of the showers and storms should dissipate. However a few showers will linger overnight through midday Tuesday as some wrap around moisture remains over the far northeast corner of the state. After this low moves out of the area, the region remains under general troughing as an upper level low parks over the Great Basin. The low should remain too far north to draw in enough moisture to give us any precipitation. However it will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below late May averages and generate some breezy conditions Wednesday into Thursday with southwesterly winds reaching 20-25 mph, gusts 30-40 mph. With RH values trending a little lower than previously thought midweek we could be reaching near critical fire conditions over the northeast desert zones. Will continue to monitor and see if fire weather issues could be a concern. By the weekend a ridge building in the center of the country will put the region under a southwesterly flow aloft which keeps things dry and brings temperatures back up to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 26/00Z through Wednesday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Expect isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with brief periods of MVFR conditions or lower through 06Z. After 06Z, most activity shifting eastward, becoming isolated through 00Z Wednesday mainly over northeast Arizona. Gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of showers/storms. Outside of storms, Light and variable winds overnight becoming S to SW at 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/00Z through Friday 29/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Winds becoming SW at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will remain locally gusty both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with areas of wetting rain possible along with cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty/erratic winds through tonight. Drier air moves in on Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering toward the Four Corners and along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Expect southeast to southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph today, shifting to south to southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH decreases to 10-20% on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday....Dry with below average temperatures. Expect south to southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday, diminishing to 5-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Bernhart AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
